[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211639
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1615 UTC...

SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
27N72W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N70W. ANOTHER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W.
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN DONE FOR THIS FEATURE...AND THE EARLIEST
SHORT-TERM FORECAST INDICATES THAT IT WILL STAY IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT MORE OR LESS ITS SAME PRESSURE
VALUE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 24N TO 27N
BETWEEN 69W AND 71W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 70W AND
80W...FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND TO THE NORTH
OF 27N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ITCZ IS ALONG 43W/44W
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/77W TO THE SOUTH OF
12N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...AND IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF NICARAGUA...CROSSING INTO NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO PRECIPITATION THAT
IS JUST RELATED TO THIS WAVE IS DISCERNIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 6N20W TO 3N28W 5N43W...
AND INTO NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N54W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 49W
AND 52W...AND THE LAND AREA FROM GUYANA TO FRENCH GUIANA
FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS FROM 4N
TO 7N BETWEEN 6W AND 13W...AND WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS
OF 8N13.5W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS MEXICO TO THE
NORTH OF 22N. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF
22N. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COMES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA JUST AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERNMOST
FLORIDA KEYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO
SOUTHERN HONDURAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 80W AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ONE CLUSTER ARE ABOUT
120 NM TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF
THE AREA. SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN LINES OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA
FROM JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA TO 26N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA.
THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS A SPECIAL FEATURE IS
NEAR 27N72W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 24N
TO 27N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. A CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N31W TO 27N35W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
23N48W TO 16N49W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN
45W AND 54W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 9N60W OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA...TO 14N40W BEYOND 19N20W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 32N10W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...HUGGING THE
COASTS OF MOROCCO AND WESTERN SAHARA TO 19N22W. NO PRECIPITATION
IS DISCERNIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THIS TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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