[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 10 KT.
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED AT LOW LATITUDE...S OF 6N...AS
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 32W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 48W-60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN
52W-57W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 8-10 KT.
THIS WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON THE GFS AT 850 MB. IT IS ALSO
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 74W-78W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 3N30W 3N40W 4N51W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 3W-6W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3S-9N BETWEEN 15W-24W...AND FROM 5S-6N BETWEEN 24W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE WEST
ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS HOWEVER OVER THE YUCATAN...YUCATAN CHANNEL...
AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
21N-25N BETWEEN 80W-86W. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF ARE
PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT FROM THE SE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT... CONTINUED
SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A SMALL 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW CENTER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 84W-87W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-88W. FURTHER S...A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN MOVING SLOWLY W. SEE
ABOVE. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 18N88W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF 80W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT...CONTINUED
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
W OF 75W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 29N73W TO 23N73W. AN
EMBEDDED LOW IS ON THE TROUGH NEAR 26N74W. PATCHES OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 64W-72W. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 40N40W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM
THE HIGH TO 30N64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 32N67W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE W
ATLANTIC. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N48W. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N10W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR...THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS TO DRIFT N WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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