[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N7W 3N18W 3N38W TO INLAND OVER NE
BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ W OF 43W TO THE COAST OF
NE BRAZIL SOUTH AMERICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 5W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 28/0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO ENTERING JUST W OF VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA EXTENDING
ALONG 27N94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR THE BORDER OF TEXAS. AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N92W TO 29N89W. SCATTERED/HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 87W
AND 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND N OF 28N
BETWEEN APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA AND NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NE ARKANSAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT
COVERED THE E GULF OF MEXICO IS RETREATING EASTWARD AND ONLY
COVERS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. NEAR ZONAL UPPER
WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF S OF 23N WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
OVER MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ZONAL UPPER WESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE BASIN.
THUS..FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
ALTHOUGH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BEING USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N55W EXTENDING SW ALONG
23N66W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO OVER THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
22N74W. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N59W TO
28N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60/90 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
45/60 NM S OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS N OF 26N FROM 51W-66W. A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL/TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
24N53W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 21N52W TO 19N51W WITH NO
ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE E ATLC NEAR 32N24W EXTENDING SW TO 27N29W WITH ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY N OF THE REGION. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS N
OF 26N FROM 16W-30W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 17N
W OF 50W WITH WEAKNESSES IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 31N40W AND A 1021 MB HIGH IS IN THE NE ATLC OFF THE COAST
OF PORTUGAL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A LARGE
AREA OF DUST COMING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDING TO 35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE




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