[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 2N21W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
34W TO INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 1N TO THE
COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 11W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
2.5N BETWEEN 36W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. NEAR ZONAL
UPPER WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF N OF 28N AND S OF
23N WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN BEING ADVECTED ACROSS
MEXICO. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NW ARKANSAS WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TEMPORARILY STALLING JUST INLAND ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST. SCATTERED/BROKEN RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY FROM 24N-29N
BETWEEN 86W-93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ZONAL UPPER WESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE BASIN.
THUS..FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
ALTHOUGH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BEING USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING SW ALONG
26N64W TO OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N75W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N66W TO 20N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM SE OF THE FRONT W
OF 66W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS N OF
25N FROM 54W-70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM 22N53W THROUGH A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 20N51W TO
18N49W WITH NO ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N27W EXTENDING SW TO 26N33W WITH
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF THE REGION. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS
FRONT IS N OF 26N FROM 18W-35W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC N OF 20N W OF 50W WITH WEAKNESSES IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE E ATLC. A 1024 MB HIGH IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N43W AND A 1024 MB HIGH IS IN THE NE ATLC
400 NM OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE





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