[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAR 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N14W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 21W AND THEN ALONG 1S TO 40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 12W-16W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 2S-4S BETWEEN
40W-44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N
BETWEEN 20W-22W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 25W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 29N77W. FURTHER W...A 1003 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER INLAND N
MEXICO NEAR 24N101W. THE RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
PRODUCING 10 KT SE FLOW OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO...AND 15-20 KT
SE FLOW OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE E GULF. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF N
OF 22N W OF 92W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS N OF 28N BETWEEN 93W-96W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
87W. A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS
THE NORTHERN GULF AND EXTENDS FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES FLORIDA AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...A
COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW GULF FROM S LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO
MEXICO WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER HISPANIOLA ALONG
71W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE ISLAND
W OF 71W. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...AND
ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS
DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NW WINDS AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W TO THE
COAST OF W CUBA WITH SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 29N77W. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N61W TO 25N66W TO THE S
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N72W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 25N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 57W-62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1025 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N39W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 30W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 10N E OF
30W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM 32N51W TO 23N58W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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