[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N14W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
21W AND THEN ALONG 1S TO 40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 10W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 40W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N84W. MOST SHIP AND
BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SE RETURN
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF W OF 86W AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. MOIST SW
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN AN
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR
NEAR 13N90W AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NW
MEXICO. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER NE MEXICO AND THE NW GULF WATERS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED EMBEDDED SHOWERS W OF 95W...WHILE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE RESULTING DUE TO
THE SURFACE RIDGE. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE
W ATLC THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY THURSDAY USHERING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT WEST OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES EASTERN CUBA AND ENTERS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO 19N80W. EASTERLY TRADES HAVE BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO
THE W ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 13N90W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD ALONG 15N TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY AIR
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH NW TO
N STABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW RESIDING OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN.
OVERALL THIS IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...HOWEVER
A FEW ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTS OF WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N60W EXTENDING SW TO
24N70W AND BECOMES A DIFFUSE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT
N OF 26N WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE FRONT
WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 32N62W TO 25N69W. BEHIND THE FRONT...A
SURFACE RIDGE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING IN ACROSS THE W ATLC AND IS
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 31N84W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC BASIN...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES AS A 1026 MB SUBTROPICAL
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N41W DRIFTS E-SE. AS A RESULT OF THE
RIDGE...NE TO E WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE ATLC E OF 55W AS INDICATED ON EARLIER MORNING WINDSAT AND
ASCAT PASSES. ALSO OF NOTE...A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERS
THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC S OF A LINE FROM 20N16W TO 15N35W TO THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N60W AS OBSERVED ON METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SELECT FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AFRICA ARE ALSO REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
BLOWING DUST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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