[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 3N21W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 37W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 5N17W 2N30W
2N40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE SE US AND THE N GULF WITH SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND A CENTRAL POINT OVER TENNESSEE.
THE EASTERN MOST SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING A 1010 MB LOW OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST IN THE W ATLC AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NAPLES TO 24N84W WITH A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NW THROUGH TALLAHASSEE...SW
GEORGIA AND N ALABAMA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING
S INTO THE NW GULF OVER LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS SUPPORTING A 1016
MB LOW OVER SE LOUISIANA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NW TO SW
ARKANSAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 23N E OF 87W AND N OF 27N
BETWEEN 87W-92W. NEAR ZONAL WESTERN UPPER FLOW THAT COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS ENHANCING A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90
TO 125 KT N OF 24N W OF 90W AND FROM 20N-29N E OF 90W. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE NW GULF BY THU NIGHT SPREADING
E ACROSS THE GULF BY SAT MORNING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND COMBINED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING DENSE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 20N W OF 82W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
80W. THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTEND OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO ALONG THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS SW TO 14N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER
SIDE FOR THE FRONT/TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER E VENEZUELA AND EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
AND OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC TO 45W. THIS UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 68W-77W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE SE US AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE W ATLC WITH SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND A
CENTRAL POINT OVER TENNESSEE. THE EASTERN MOST SHORTWAVE IS
ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA TO SOUTH CAROLINA SUPPORTING A 1010
MB LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR DAYTONA BEACH AND A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS W TO OVER DAYTONA BEACH THEN NW OVER THE SE US WHILE A
THIRD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND 32N79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-34N
BETWEEN 75W-79W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA W OF 70W. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS TO THE NE OF THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 26N70W AS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS N ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO
NEAR 32N65W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 28N
BETWEEN 33W-55W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N35W EXTENDING SW ALONG 24N47W TO 20N57W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ALONG THE S COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH 16N45W TO BEYOND 32N21W PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF
LINE FROM 26N38W TO BEYOND 32N29W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N14W TO A 1021 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N21W TO A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 19N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net