[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAR 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W 2N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 47W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 21W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOCATED OVER THE SE CONUS AND IS
INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA WITH A 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW
FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SE GULF TO 24N84W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 88W
AND OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...MOST NOTABLY
NEAR TAMPA BAY AND N OF 29N. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE INTO
THE WESTERN ATLC OFFSHORE ZONES WITH N-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN
GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF 88W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS ENHANCED ALOFT BY VERY DRY AND
SUBSIDENT NW FLOW STREAMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD
LOCATING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE
TEXAS GULF COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AS WELL BRINGING STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN TO THE NW GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO AND REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS
EVENING. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS IS ADVECTING EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF A LINE FROM EASTERN
CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. ELSEWHERE OVER
THE NE CARIBBEAN...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC ALONG 18N63W TO 15N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
NW OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO BE LARGELY
SUPPRESSED BY STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER EASTERN
VENEZUELA THAT IS PROVIDING VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER COASTAL NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
NW VENEZUELA THIS EVENING FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 68W-76W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SE
CONUS WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER THE W ATLC THIS EVENING.
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N80W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS FROM 23N TO BEYOND 32N W OF 68W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND MUCH OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. FARTHER
EAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 35N46W AND SUPPORTS A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. WITHIN THIS FRONTAL TROUGH TWO COLD
FRONTS EXTEND INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE EASTERNMOST COLD
FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N29W TO 24N50W BECOMING A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH IS ALSO LOCATED SE OF THIS COLD FRONT FROM 23N50W TO THE
NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N63W. THE WESTERNMOST COLD FRONT EXTENDS
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG
26N50W TO 23N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N31W TO 24N50W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N20W EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS SW TO 15N50W. THE COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD
FRONTAL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MERGE AND CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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