[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF NORTHERN LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 2N20W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 25W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 3S40W TO 4S50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 20W...TO THE
SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 21W AND 30W...FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN
35W AND 40W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN IOWA. A TROUGH CONNECTS THE IOWA CYCLONIC CENTER TO
A TEXAS PANHANDLE/WEST TEXAS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N.
A BAND UPPER LEVEL LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ABOUT 240 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N110W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
TO 24N98W ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST...TO 28N84W ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...TO 26N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO
THE BASE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS NEAR 16N60W. A RIDGE IN THE BAND OF WESTERLY
WINDS IS ALONG 84W/85W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 30N91W AT THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST...
TO 25N94W TO 21N94W...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 17N92W.
A SECOND BROAD AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURES WAS NOTED
FOR THE 11/1500 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS TO THE NORTH OF 28N
BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 90W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W...SOME REACHING FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
THE RIDGE IS ALONG 84W/85W FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N
SOUTHWARD. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 17N60W...THROUGH THE GUADELOUPE CHANNEL TO 16N67W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 16N67W TO 17N74W. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 16N78W
16N70W 17N60W. THE COMPARATIVELY GREATEST CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W ACROSS THE
ISLANDS IN THAT AREA. SHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AT 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 63W
AND 67W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 23N59W TO 16N60W.
THIS TROUGH STILL SUPPORTS THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 30N37W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
25N40W 20N48W AND 18N56W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
18N56W TO THE GUADELOUPE CHANNEL...AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 16N67W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 30N37W 18N56W COLD FRONT. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N12W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 27N20W...
TO 27N24W. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM 27N24W TO THE 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM
19N TO 26N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W...AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N21W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM TO 300 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 18N62W 26N44W BEYOND 32N31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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