[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N20W 3N35W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
NEAR 44W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 16W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES. A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED FROM AN UPPER LOW MOVING N OVER
NW MISSOURI EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED IN
THE E PACIFIC AND CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO AND THE GULF WATERS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ACCOMPANIED
BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE COMBINING TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER NE MISSISSIPPI/
NW ALABAMA AND MOVING FROM THE NE GULF WATERS N OF 28N E OF 90W
TO OVER SE US. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS JUST N OF GUADELOUPE WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONT CONTINUING W TO 17N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. SCATTERED/BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA S OF 17N
FROM 70W-80W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 17N80W TO OVER W
CUBA NEAR 23N83W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING
FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER
BERMUDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE WEAK UPPER FLOW
EXTEND OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM CUBA TO BEYOND 32N W OF 75W.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND INTO
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 40W-70W SUPPORTING A COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW NE OF THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS THROUGH 32N13N OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 28N17W
27N28W 29N37W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 29N39W ALONG 20N50W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN OVER LEEWARD ISLANDS JUST N OF GUADELOUPE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE FRONT FROM 31W TO THE LOW AND WITHIN 250 NM NW OF THE
FRONT BETWEEN THE LOW AND 60W. AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXETNDS FROM TROPICS NEAR 7N40W TO NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE






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