[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031706
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 4N20W
3N30W 4N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
9W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
23W-26W...AND FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 31W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
THE WAKE OF A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS THAT PUSHED OUT OF THE BASIN
LAST NIGHT. STRONG NW WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN GULF
MAINTAINING A COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES ARE ALSO ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE W ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS
OVER THE MEXICO COASTLINE N OF TAMPICO...AND ERN TEXAS. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS KEEPING SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE WRN GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN AROUND THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N ACROSS THE ERN CONUS
SUPPORTING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT RECENTLY MOVED OUT OF
THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO IS
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING ACROSS THE WRN
GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAIR WITH COOL TEMPERATURES REMAINING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY.
AS OF 1500 UTC...THE MAIN FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS
TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE WRN TIP OF CUBA NEAR 20N74W ACROSS ERN
JAMAICA TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER ALONG 15N80W 19N84W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE SECOND FRONT...DEPICTING A SURGE OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR...EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 23N80W CONTINUING TO THE NW COAST OF HONDURAS ALONG 20N85W
16N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS HONDURAS S OF 17N BETWEEN
83W-88W. BOTH OF THESE FRONTS ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND W ATLC. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N OF ERN
SOUTH AMERICA WITH AXIS ALONG 57W. EXPECT THE MAIN FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD IMPACTING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH A
980 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF N CAROLINA. THE MAIN FRONT ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N66W ALONG 26N70W ACROSS TURKS AND
CAICOS TO ERN CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER E N OF 26N BETWEEN
61W-65W. THE SECOND FRONT...INDICATING A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS...ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N72W ALONG 27N75W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 57W SUPPORTS A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N51W.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT PROTRUDES INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE
ALONG 32N31W 26N36W BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
22N49W TO 24N58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT
AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG 30W. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ERN ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1021 MB HIGH SW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 25N24W PROVIDING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON



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