[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...
FROM NORTHERN LIBERIA NEAR 8N10W TO 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S48W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 0.5N TO 1.5N BETWEEN 32W
AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 4N8W 5N12W 6N16W 4N23W 3N27W 1N33W TO THE EQUATOR
ALONG 41W...2N45W 4N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM HISPANIOLA
TO NICARAGUA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE
AREA...THANKS TO A TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
JUST OFF THE COAST OF MARYLAND TO FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE
TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
PUSHING CLOUDS/MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS
FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TROUGH IS STEERING
A FIRST COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 26N74W...ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
18N80W...TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...TO WESTERN NICARAGUA.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE
IN FLORIDA TO 24N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES
FROM A 1021 MB EAST CENTRAL TEXAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BETWEEN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AT 20N
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF
THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW PRESSURE COVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W...ASSOCIATED WITH
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 39N43W. A 986 MB GALE CENTER IS
NEAR 40N45W. THE COLD FRONT THAT EMANATES FROM THE 986 MB GALE
CENTER EVENTUALLY PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 25N40W. A SHEAR AXIS/
REMNANT CLOUD LINE CONTINUES FROM 21N48W TO 17N58W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N30W 23N40W 20N50W
19N59W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN
28W AND 30W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE AZORES.
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR
39N11W. A 994 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 39N13W...ABOUT 200 NM TO
THE WEST OF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL. THE COLD FRONT THAT EMANATES
FROM THE 994 MB GALE CENTER PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN SPAIN TO
36N5W IN THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
23N21W...FROM 10N TO 30N TO THE EAST OF THE 32N32W 25N40W COLD
FRONT. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N55W...FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN
THE 32N32W 25N40W COLD FRONT AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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