[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON MAR 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N30W TO THE NE BRAZIL
COAST NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 33W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N93W WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N94W TO 20N95W. A
WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW EASTWARD ACROSS SE
LOUISIANA TO 30N86W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT MAINLY N OF 22N WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND
ALABAMA. WRAP AROUND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS EAST TEXAS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 28N W OF 94W. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NE GULF
WATERS AND ALSO PROVIDE A LARGE AREA OF NW TO N WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING...
CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND E OF 84W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH BISECTS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM A
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT REACHES ACROSS NW
PUERTO RICO AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 18N67W 15N75W TO THE COAST OF
PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. CONVERGENT NE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WITHIN 150 NM WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 15N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
UNDER MODERATELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUESDAY MORNING AND USHER IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF NW WINDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM AN OCCLUDED 972 MB LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE FRONT ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W CONTINUING SW ALONG 25N55W TO
23N58W BECOMING STATIONARY TO NW PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N67W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM
E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 35N49W TO 24N59W THAT
SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED
ALOFT WEST OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
AS A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W.
FARTHER EAST...A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N19W AND EXTENDS S TO 26N21W THEN WSW TO NEAR 23N30W THEN
BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TO 23N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT S OF 26N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 40W SUPPORTING A 1018 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N38W ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLC...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR EASTERN ATLC
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 34N20W TO 22N14W WHICH SUPPORTS THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NE ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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