[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON MAR 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 5N20W
4N30W 3N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2N52W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 24W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 31W-33W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 38W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFF THE
COAST OF TEXAS CURRENTLY NEAR 28N95W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S
FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N95W TO S OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. A
WARM FRONT LINES THE NW GULF FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 28N90W TO
26N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO THE N ACROSS FAR E TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. THE
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN
CENTRAL TEXAS AND MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS
UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IS FURTHER ENHANCING THE HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE W
GULF STATES. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER COVER MUCH OF THE
REMAINING AREA INCLUDING FLORIDA AND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF
THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WITH CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 24 HRS IN THE CENTRAL GULF AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT BISECTS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT REACHES ACROSS ERN
HISPANIOLA BECOMING DISSIPATING JUST S OF HISPANIOLA TO THE
COAST OF PANAMA ALONG 18N71W 14N76W 9N79W. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THIS FRONT HAS DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS NRN HISPANIOLA N OF 19N BETWEEN
68W-74W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 78W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER MODERATE DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE WITH ZONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
DISSIPATE AS A SECOND COLD FRONT REACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM A DEEPENED AND OCCLUDED 966 MB LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE
FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N52W CONTINUING SW ALONG
22N60W TO ERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N70W  AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE
FRONT N OF 23N TO 49W...AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS S OF 23N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE W
ATLC ALONG 65W SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. FARTHER E...A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE ERN AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH
NEAR 29N40W. HOWEVER...A SECOND COLD FRONT PROTRUDES INTO THE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 993 MB LOW SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N24W
ALONG 31N22W 26N28W 23N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE FRONT...AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 17W-21W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 42W
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLC...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E ATLC
EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUPPORTING THE FRONT ACROSS THE ERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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