[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 23.1N 94.8W AT 30/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT 170 NM E-SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 220 NM SE OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING W AT 04 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 85 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 89W-98W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM
14N-19N BETWEEN 90W-100W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N24W TO 16N25W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE LIES WEST OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ABOUT THE
WAVE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 21W-29W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-12N BETWEEN 22W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N45W TO 10N50W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AT THIS TIME...LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 45W-52W. THE WAVE ALSO
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N
BETWEEN 44W-53W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 45W-50W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N25W 06N33W 06N47W 07N60W.
AN AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 07N-16N BETWEEN 12W-21W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ALEX IS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF 88W. OTHER AREAS OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND INLAND PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NE GULF COAST TO 31N. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF
CENTERED NEAR 26N90W TO THE NE OF THE CENTER OF ALEX AND IS
PROVIDING A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
TO CONTINUE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND ORGANIZATION. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREADS OVER THE BASIN AND SE CONUS FURTHER
SUPPORTING THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. ASIDE FROM HURRICANE ALEX DIRECTLY IMPACTING MUCH OF
THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W...STRONG SE WINDS TO 30 KT ARE NOTED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 12 FT N
OF 23N BETWEEN 85W-90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ALEX CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA REMAINING MAINLY W OF 88W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ADVECTING FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 14N W OF
79W. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 74W AND CONTINUES TO
ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MENTIONED ABOVE. FARTHER SOUTH
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER PANAMA S OF 09N DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 08N BETWEEN 73W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N65W.
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ALOFT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...HOWEVER...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN N OF 12N E OF 70W. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED
IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 23N53W TO 14N60W. LONG-TERM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY A
NORTHERN EXTENT OF ENERGY THAT FRACTURED AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 47W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE BAHAMAS ANALYZED FROM 25N-30N
ALONG 73W AND IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 26N74W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS FARTHER EAST
FROM 25N-30N ALONG 63W ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS E-NE OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 23N53W TO 14N60W. THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE
ORIGINATED FROM A FRACTURED PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF 47W. THE TROUGH PRECEDES AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 200 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB AZORES HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 36N28W KEEPING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE BASIN. ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N27W TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N53W.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 20N18W THAT IS
PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net