[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251128
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 0900 UTC...A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ACROSS CUBA ALONG 20N82W
THROUGH A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 16N82W TO 12N81W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 14N-17N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 79W-84W.

THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NW...AND THE
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION JUST TO THE E OF THE
WAVE AXIS. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 23N MOVING NW 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH PARTIALLY MASKING THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 51W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE HAS
SLOWED DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES AND CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THAT TROPICAL WAVE. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A
45 NM RADIUS OF 15N74W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 72W-78W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N22W 4N46W 7N56W 10N62W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-12N E OF
23W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E GULF NEAR 27N88W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING WSW TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N97W TO A SECOND
UPPER LOW NEAR 22N100W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE S GULF S OF 24N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 30N TO E TEXAS COVERING THE GULF N OF 25N
AND ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
29N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE E
BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N BETWEEN 93W-96W AND IN THE E GULF
WITHIN 60 NM OF 25.5N BETWEEN 82W-86W. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE GULF
BUT LEAVING MOST OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT CONTINUES TO THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE
BEING IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 18N84W EXTENDING E TO ACROSS
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR GUADELOUPE...W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
COVERING THE S GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL WAVES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W
CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 75W-80W AND FROM 12N-22N W OF 80W
TO JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N E OF
75W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 68W ANCHORED NEAR
31N77W WITH DRY AIR ALOFT LEAVING THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF
20N BETWEEN 50W-68W AND IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W/59W AS WELL AS DENSE CLOUD
COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 49W-56W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH IN THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N38W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W ALONG 30N TO
OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE FLORIDA/
GEORGIA BORDER KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$-
PAW





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