[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 0300 UTC...A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS ACROSS CUBA ALONG 20N82W
THROUGH A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 16N82W TO 13N81W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
13N-17N BETWEEN 76W-82W. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NW...AND THE SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 23N MOVING NW 15-20 KT. WAVE
HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF AN UPPER TROUGH PARTIALLY MASKING THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 54W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES...THUS IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THAT
WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF
17N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN 71W-76W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 11N20W 5N29W 4N40W 3N48W
4N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150
NM OF LINE FROM W AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO 5N31W AND WITHIN 75 NM
OF THE ITCZ FROM 38W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE SE GULF NEAR 26N86W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 25N97W TO A SECOND UPPER
LOW NEAR 22N101W WHILE THE N GULF IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY ZONAL
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
COVERS THE S GULF S OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
HAVE MOVED INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 93W.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE GULF BUT LEAVING MOST OF THE GULF UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT CONTINUES TO THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE
BEING IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 17N86W EXTENDING E TO ACROSS
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE AND W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
COVERING THE S GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL WAVES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA...HONDURAS...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 80W ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...
JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 68W ANCHORED NEAR
31N75W WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT LEAVING THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N
OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-68W AND HAD BEEN BENIGN FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY ENHANCING DENSE CLOUD COVER THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-25N BETWEEN 49W-56W.
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO
THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N53W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 58W-63W.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N40W
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W ALONG 30N TO THE SE CONUS AND THE N
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER KEEPING THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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