[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N34W TO 2N37W MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK
WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ITCZ RATHER THAN THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N65W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 10N67W MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS TILTED NE/SW WITH A
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE FROM 14N69W TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO NEAR
19N64W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N23W 5N37W 3N52W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 41W FROM 3N-8N.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N
BETWEEN 38W-48W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 31W-38W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150/175 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ E OF 31W TO THE COAST
OF W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO A
WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE S GULF NEAR 23N93W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W NE TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT MYERS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE
GULF FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 27N E OF 84W TO JUST INLAND OVER
THE W COAST OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO
COMPLIMENTS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH IN
THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W
CARIBBEAN W OF 86W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 15N80W COVERING THE AREA N OF 11N BETWEEN 70W-86W WITH
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM CENTRAL HAITI NEAR 19N72W ALONG THE S
COAST OF CUBA TO 21N80W. CONVERGENCE OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N
FROM 75W-81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 40W
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE E ATLC E OF 40W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR W
ATLC WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST FROM FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA.
A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N47W TO 30N61W BECOMING A SURFACE
TROUGH TO 31N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC THROUGH
32N32W SW ALONG 25N44W THEN W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN
N OF 20N. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A SURFACE LOW...IS IN
THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 54W/55W BETWEEN 10N-18N GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
48W-55W AND FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 55W 59W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE





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