[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N32W 6N34W 2N36W
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE IN THE
ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM 18N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING
NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND 10N64W
AT THE VENEZUELA COAST TO 5N66W...IN SOUTHERN VENEZUELA.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN VENEZUELA FROM 8N TO THE
COAST BETWEEN 61W AND 67W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 7N11W NEAR THE BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA...
TO 4N21W TO 6N32W 2N44W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR THE
EQUATOR ALONG 51W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 7N17W 6N38W 1N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN MEXICO TO THE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 101W AND 107 IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
WIND FLOW. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N96W
TO A 23N92W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA
AROUND THE 23N92W CYCLONIC CENTER...FROM 24N90W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...NORTHWARD
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST INTO SOUTH TEXAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN PROBABLY
IS HELPING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER THE AREA FROM EL SALVADOR TO
NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS FLORIDA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EVEN IN
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W AND ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ANY POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MOST PROBABLY IS TO THE SOUTH OF
14N TO THE WEST OF 72W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 30N60W 30N68W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N68W TO 30N75 AND 31N79W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 44W AND 65W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N33W TO 27N45W TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 26N66W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 24N31W AND 20N36W. THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO 20N55W AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N64W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 19N60W 18N55W 19N52W 19N50W.
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15N52W. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING NEAR THIS SYSTEM. ITS CHANCES OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
ARE NEAR ZERO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net