[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WAVE CONTINUES TO LAG THE LARGE AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM BUT
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ RATHER THAN THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N58W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 8N62W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS SLIGHTLY TILTED
NW/SE WITH A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY MAINLY BETWEEN 13N-16N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 54W-59W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N23W 2N45W 3N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 3N W OF 47W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 225/250 NM S OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC FROM 10W-47W AND WITHIN 150/180 NM N OF THE ITCZ
FROM 22W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS IN THE SW GULF NEAR 23N95W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM
24N97W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR
18N94W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W N TO OVER THE NE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA
FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF W OF
90W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 83W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A 1019 MB HIGH IS IN THE NE GULF
NEAR 28N87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
W OF 82W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 16N76W COVERING THE AREA N OF 13N BETWEEN 70W-82W WITH
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING THE
AREA N OF 14N E OF 82W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM SW
HAITI ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA TO 21N80W. CONVERGENCE OF
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N FROM 75W-82W AND S OF 17N FROM 82W-87W TO
INLAND OVER PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS
USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF
45W WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE E ATLC E OF 45W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE SW ATLC S OF 28N W OF 77W TO THE FLORIDA COAST AND THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW
INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA ENTERING THE FAR W ATLC NEAR
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA THEN SW TO INLAND OVER JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA TO NEAR TALLAHASSEE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST N OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA INTO SE
NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE W
ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N59W ALONG 31N70W THEN NW TO BEYOND
32N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH BECAME EVIDENT AT 0900 UTC EXTENDING
ALONG 30N FROM 69W-76W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING N OF THE TROUGH TO 31N BETWEEN 73W-76W.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC THROUGH 32N37 SW ALONG
25N59W THEN W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN N OF 20N. A
1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N49W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 46W-52W.  THE TYPICAL UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO 50W ALONG 16N/17N
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE TROPICAL
ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE




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