[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THE
SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 740 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS
GREATLY DIMINISHED TO 10 PERCENT AND WILL NOW BE DISCUSSED IN
THE ATLANTIC BASIN SECTION BELOW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LITTLE
SIGNATURE REMAINS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LAG
THE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N
BETWEEN 27W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS SLIGHTLY TILTED NW/SE WITH A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY BETWEEN 13N-16N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 54W-59W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 6N25W 2N39W 3N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 46W-49W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 250 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 12W-23W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO
8N BETWEEN 30W-38W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 38W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE SW GULF NEAR 24N96W SUPPORTING A
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N96W INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS BECOMING AMPLIFIED EXTENDING FROM THE E YUCATAN
PENINSULA N TO OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N88W. THIS SCENARIO IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N TO THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 87W-91W AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 23N W OF 90W. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER S FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE IN
FLORIDA BAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 26N E OF 83W. A 1018 MB
HIGH IS IN THE NE GULF NEAR 27N86W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
W OF 82W. A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N77W COVERING THE AREA N OF 12N BETWEEN 67W-82W
WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N E OF 82W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-83W. CONVERGENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE
ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
11N-15N E OF 80W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF
45W WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE E ATLC E OF 45W. A
1013 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES...IS CENTERED
NEAR 14N48W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING
THE AREA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 46W-50W. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC BASIN N OF 20N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC
THROUGH 32N35W SW ALONG 26N50W THEN W TO 26N80W DOMINATING THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE TYPICAL UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO 50W ALONG 16N ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE





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