[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 07N34W IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS...THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
FAVORABLE CHARACTERISTICS FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
NOTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THIS MORNING
EXTENDING FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 25W-41W. THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SURROUNDING THE LOW IS GENERATING NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 13N
BETWEEN 30W-42W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N25W AND EXTENDS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SW TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
COASTAL SURINAME. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS HELPING TO VENTILATE CONVECTION AND SUSTAIN
LIFT IN THE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT AND LARGELY REMAINING E OF 22W.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN 700-850 MB TROUGH AXIS NW OF THE
WAVE MOVING OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE WAVE LACKS ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. THE
WAVE LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN
30W-41W. THE WAVE IS ALSO WEST OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS S OF 13N
BETWEEN 72W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
08N-12N BETWEEN 73W-82W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 08N32W 05N45W 06N57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-08N BETWEEN 06W-14W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE
ITCZ FROM 05N-11N ALONG 59W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 58W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY
MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER FAR EASTERN
TEXAS NEAR 32N95W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
ARKANSAS TO CENTRAL MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION.
OVER THE EASTERN GULF...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE
NE GULF AND SW GULF WITH TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM ONE UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N85W TO THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N92W.
EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND FLORIDA
STRAITS S OF 24N E OF 90W. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W IS
PROVIDING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED NEAR THE HIGH
CENTER...WITH SE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF REACHING UP TO 20
KT AS DEPICTED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 13/0316 UTC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N81W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND WITH
ELEVATED VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING N OF 17N BETWEEN 73W-84W. FARTHER SOUTH...
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W. THE CONVECTION IS
LARGELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 11N74W TO 14N83W...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS STRETCHING NW OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...
HONDURAS...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 83W.
ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND STRETCHES W-NW TOWARDS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. THIS
TROUGH IS RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...A SURFACE
TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-20N ALONG 67W
CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
15N BETWEEN 63W-72W. LIGHTNING DATA ALSO INDICATES A FEW
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SW OF THE
MONA PASSAGE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 67W-72W MOVING WESTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N75W
AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS E-SE OVER MUCH OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC W OF 60W. HOWEVER...EAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
AN AXIS ALONG 32N46W TO 20N60W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N49W TO 28N55W BECOMING STATIONARY INTO A
WEAK 1017 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH THEN
EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 27N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER WEST...A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 24N-29N ALONG 79W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 78W-80W. ELSEWHERE...A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINING AREA ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE
AZORES NEAR 43N27W. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER N OF 18N E OF 45W. ALOFT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N32W
ALONG 20N45W AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N61W.
ELSEWHERE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 16N25W
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC SE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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