[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT AND LARGELY REMAINING E OF 20W.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN 700-850 MB TROUGH AXIS NW OF THE
WAVE MOVING OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THIS EVENING. AS TYPICAL
WITH THE LOSS OF MAXIMUM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING USUALLY LOCATED
OVER LAND...THE WAVE LACKS AND SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
COAST AND INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 07N-16N BETWEEN 12W-17W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. THE
WAVE LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN
24W-40W. THE WAVE IS ALSO WEST OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A
1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 06N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 29W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WITHIN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS S OF
13N BETWEEN 70W-81W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 73W-80W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N14W 06N31W 07N38W 05N47W 09N62W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 04N-10N ALONG 26W
AND IS QUICKLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR 06N31W. FARTHER WEST...A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE
BETWEEN 50W-60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN
56W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY
MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER EASTERN TEXAS
NEAR 31N95W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ARKANSAS TO
CENTRAL MEXICO. OVER THE EASTERN GULF...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL
LOWS ARE OVER THE NE GULF AND SW GULF WITH TROUGHING STRETCHING
FROM ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N84W TO THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW NEAR 22N92W. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITHIN 120
NM OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 28N AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 23N E OF 90W. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR
30N87W IS PROVIDING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED NEAR
THE HIGH CENTER...WITH SE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF REACHING
UP TO 20 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N81W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT COVERS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND WITH ELEVATED VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING W OF 76W.
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND STRETCHES NW TOWARDS
HISPANIOLA. THIS TROUGH IS RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED EAST OF PUERTO RICO
FROM 16N-20N ALONG 65W CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 60W-71W. LIGHTNING DATA
ALSO INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 66W-69W MOVING WESTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N72W
AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SE OVER MUCH OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC W OF 60W. HOWEVER...EAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
AXIS ALONG 32N48W TO 21N57W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N50W TO 27N60W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH
TO 27N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 46W TO THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER
WEST...A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS FROM 24N-29N ALONG 78W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 78W-80W. ELSEWHERE...A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINING AREA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED
NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 44N26W. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER N OF 15N E OF 45W. ALOFT...AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
29N32W ALONG 20N45W AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
15N61W. ELSEWHERE....A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 14N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net