[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT.
EXAMINING THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM...IT APPEARS THE WAVE HAS
TRACKED ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR AFRICA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND IS FINALLY EMERGING OFF THE COAST. A LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 09N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE WAVE FROM
07N-12N BETWEEN 16W-19W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 25W-38W. THE WAVE IS
ALSO WEST OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS
FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
06N33W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N
BETWEEN 25W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY OVER
NW VENEZUELA AND ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N86W ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS AND
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE
IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 120 NM
OF A LINE FROM 11N79W TO 19N88W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N17W 06N31W 04N45W 05N53W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 11N22W
TO 05N24W. CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ABOUT
THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 07N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 22W-26W. FARTHER
WEST...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 54W S OF 10N
INTO INTERIOR EASTERN SURINAME. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 04N-08N
BETWEEN 52W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY MODERATE
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED
IN THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION NEAR 30N84W. LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED NEAR THE HIGH CENTER...WITH SE WINDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF REACHING UP TO 20 KT. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF 24N E OF 87W...
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 79W. OTHERWISE...
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTEND FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA N OF
21N...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR
20N75W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THEN NW TO OVER HISPANIOLA.
MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND THEREFORE IS RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A SURFACE
TROUGH LOCATED NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ANALYZED FROM 22N57W TO
DOMINICA NEAR 15N61W CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-75W. LIGHTNING DATA ALSO
INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY NE OF ANGUILLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 61W-63W MOVING
WESTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W. THIS IS PROVIDING FOR AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE BASIN. ELEVATED VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE ALSO
NOTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-74W AND S OF 19N BETWEEN 74W-92W AND
WITH THE PRESENCE OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES PROGRESSING WESTWARD...
ARE PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY WITHIN 120
NM OF A LINE FROM 11N79W TO 19N88W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 29N71W
AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC ALONG 23N64W TO 25N50W. HOWEVER...NORTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS A DEEP LATER TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD TO 28N BETWEEN
50W-62W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N54W TO 30N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N56W TO 28N71W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
FARTHER WEST...A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS ALONG 28N75W
TO 25N78W. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 75W-81W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH
OF THE REMAINING AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR
43N27W. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER N OF 15N
E OF 50W. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N57W TO
15N61W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-24N BETWEEN
52W-64W. ALOFT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N39W ALONG 20N50W AND INTO THE
NE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N62W. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC SE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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