[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT.
EXAMINING THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM...IT APPEARS THE WAVE HAS
TRACKED ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR AFRICA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND IS FINALLY EMERGING OFF THE COAST. A LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 08N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE
WAVE FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 14W-18W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 25W-37W. THE WAVE IS
ALSO WEST OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 27W-38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
04N-10N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY OVER
WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 68W-76W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N84W ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS AND
WESTERN NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION MOVING W NEAR
10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
11N-18N BETWEEN 78W-91W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N16W 05N36W 04N52W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 09N21W TO
05N24W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS DEPICTED CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT
THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 08N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 21W-30W. FARTHER WEST
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 54W S OF 09N INTO
INTERIOR FRENCH GUIANA. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN
51W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY MODERATE
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ANCHORED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N99W. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED
IN THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION NEAR 29N84W. LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED NEAR THE HIGH CENTER...WITH SE WINDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF REACHING UP TO 20 KT. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 22N86W...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SW
OFF OF CUBA AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 19N77W TO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WEST
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CONNECTED TO ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA. MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THEREFORE IS RESULTING IN A LACK
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF
16N E OF 73W. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 57W CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 59W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR
12N72W. THIS IS PROVIDING FOR AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN.
ELEVATED VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE ALSO NOTED S OF 14N
BETWEEN 64W-74W AND S OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-88W AND WITH THE
PRESENCE OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES PROGRESSING WESTWARD...ARE
PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY S OF
19N W OF 77W TO OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...
HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 30N73W
AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC ALONG 23N60W TO 26N48W. HOWEVER...NE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS A DEEP LATER TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD TO 30N BETWEEN
50W-65W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 32N56W TO 28N61W TO 28N69W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. FARTHER WEST...A
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 28N76W TO 23N78W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 76W-79W. FARTHER EAST...A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINING AREA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED
NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N29W. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER N OF 15N E OF 50W. HOWEVER...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 23N55W TO 16N57W AND IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 15N-24N BETWEEN 52W-63W. ALOFT...AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 26N38W ALONG 20N50W AND INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 17N61W. ELSEWHERE....A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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