[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SLIGHT MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH AN ILL-DEFINED CYCLONIC
CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
1N-8N BETWEEN 23W-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 12N56W TO 6N53W MOVING W 15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH AN ILL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 59W-60W WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 51W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS COMPLETELY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO INDICATION IN
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ANY CONVECTION IS WELL INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 6N26W 3N40W 4N53W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 11N ACROSS THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 3N-16N BETWEEN 13W-20W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN
27W-31W AND WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 31W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 22N W OF 94W. HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY IS INLAND
WITH ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED JUST
N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W EXTENDING AN AXIS N TO
OVER THE N GULF COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
COVERING THE E GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE W ATLC ENDS IN
THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 23N81W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS S OF 25N TO
OVER CUBA E OF 83W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF UNDER REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 78W.
THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO 12N BETWEEN 66W-78W. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH HAS SET UP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AS A SURFACE TROUGH HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
JUST S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N78W ALONG 15N79W TO 12N79W. DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COUPLED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 75W-84W.
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC TO 75W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N60W BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR 31N63W CONTINUING SW ACROSS THE
N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 23N81W SUPPORTED BY
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE
E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 52W-75W. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT MAINLY S OF 28N. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS...THAT
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN...EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
12N45W N TO BEYOND 32N50W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-26N FROM 56W-73W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 25N48W TO 18N43W BUT IS
NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF
THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE





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