[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 10N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SLIGHT MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH LITTLE SATELLITE SIGNATURE
REMAINING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 23W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 12N53W TO 5N51W MOVING W 15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH AN ILL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 51W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS COMPLETELY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO INDICATION IN
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ANY CONVECTION IS WELL INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS AND INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 6N20W 3N37W 9N53W 7N59W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA TO GUINEA S OF 10N.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
15W-22W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 26W-30W...AND WITHIN
90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 8N26W 6N33W TO 6N40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF IS ANCHORED IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N87W EXTENDING AN AXIS N TO OVER THE N
GULF COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH A
WEAKENING 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W AND COVERS THE NE GULF. A
SEABREEZE TROUGH IS ALONG THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT
MYERS TO ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N TO CUBA E OF
83W THROUGH THE FLORIA STRAITS. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ARE KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER
REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR
21N87W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 11N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN
76W-85W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS PLAGUED BY HIGH CLOUDS BUT LITTLE
INDICATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC TO 75W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N62W
EXTENDING SW TO 27N74W BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO NEAR 24N79W SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT
COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
60W-75W. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR W ATLC IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-26N W OF 77W TO THE
COAST OF FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N45W N TO BEYOND
32N53W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
20N-27N FROM 56W-73W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB SURFACE
HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE





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