[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 32W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 11N50W TO 3N48W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH LITTLE INDICATION IN THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND OVER
PORTIONS OF E VENEZUELA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN
S OF 13N E OF 68W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 12N DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE
MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND A WELL
DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N14W 6N25W 7N37W 6N55W 7N61W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 20W-32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
1N-10N BETWEEN 16W-32W AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
LIBERIA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE TEXAS/NE MEXICO NEAR
26N99W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF ANCHORED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N84W. MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH
DIFFLUENCE SPREADING OVER THE N/CENTRAL AND NE GULF GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N E OF 94W TO
THE N GULF COAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N88W TO
OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NW GUATEMALA BUT DUE TO THE DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE W ATLC WITH A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH NW OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
NEAR 25N84W AND PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ANCHORED W CUBA NEAR 22N48W
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N W OF 72W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE TO
GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL
ATLC. THE NE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT DIPS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS EXTENDING N OF 14N E OF 72W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM
HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
CONVERGENT TRADEWINDS AT THE SURFACE AND AN OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N E OF 82W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CLEAR TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER W CUBA EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLC W OF 72W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N W OF 75W TO THE FLORIDA E
COAST AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 26N70W TO OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS NEAR 21N73W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
FROM 55W-72W DIPPING S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N59W TO NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 19N62W AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 57W-63W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND ALL OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N38W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE





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