[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062354 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 06 2010

CORRECTION FOR TIME ISSUANCE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A NORTHWARD MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND EXHIBITS CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO
INDICATES A 30-40 KT 600-700 MB AFRICAN EASTERLY JET TRAILING
EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 33W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 9N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
BETWEEN 46W-50W WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
43W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 13N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
ELEVATED VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE INDICATED OVER
THE SE CARIBBEAN. SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND W-SW UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A TOLL ON THE WAVE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS ENERGY FRACTURES NORTHWARD INTO A WESTERN ATLC UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VENEZUELA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N E
OF 68W OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 11N AND DRIFTING SLOWLY
WESTWARD INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. GIVEN PLENTIFUL DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...
AND SW OF A LINE FROM 13N83W TO 9N76W OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA
WATERS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N13W 5N25W 6N33W 5N44W 5N48W 7N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 12W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 36W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N99W AND AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR
22N83W. SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WITH DIFFLUENCE SPREADING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE
GULF. THIS ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 86W-94W.
ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 25N TO 90W PROVIDING FOR
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
CUBA NEAR 22N83W AND ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
14N W OF 71W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLC REGION FROM 9N56W TO 12N70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT DIPS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 20N65W TO 13N73W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA
AND PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
CONVERGENT TRADEWINDS AT THE SURFACE...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
82W...AND AN OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SW OF A LINE FROM
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER WESTERN CUBA AND
INFLUENCES THE W ATLC WATERS W OF 70W WITH N-NW UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. THIS DIFFLUENT PATTERN CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLC
WATERS FROM 27N-31N W OF 77W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO 28N72W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS. PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED BETWEEN 50W-70W WITH MEAN AXIS EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N63W TO 20N65W AND OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 20N64W ALONG 25N57W TO 32N54W WITH CYCLONIC
TURNING NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS SURROUNDING THE TROUGH
AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVER THE AREA FROM
20N-32N BETWEEN 48W-62W. THE MOST CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE CELLS
ARE FOCUSED WITHIN 90 NM OF A POINT NEAR 23N59W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN ATLC CONTINUES TO FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N39W. STRONG NE WINDS TO 25 KT ARE
NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA N OF 18N E OF 22W AND ARE
CONFIRMED WITH A RECENT 06/1836 UTC WINDSAT PASS NEAR THE
MAURITANIA AND WESTERN SAHARA COASTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN





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