[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052329
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/30W TO THE SOUTH
OF 11N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 26W AND 27W...FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN
29W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N INTO GUYANA MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. IT IS NOT EASY
TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W
TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN
79W AND THE PANAMA BORDER WITH COSTA RICA.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 8N13W TO 6N28W 4N31W TO 5N42W...
TO THE EASTERN COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N52W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN GUYANA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG
THE LIBERIA COAST TO THE NORTH OF 5N...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN
33W AND 34W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA
FROM BRAZIL TO FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN
53W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ITS
PRESENCE...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...TO THE
SOUTHERNMOST PART OF MISSISSIPPI...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF LOUISIANA...TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND COASTAL WATERS...
AND FINALLY TO SOUTHERN MEXICO JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GEORGIA...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
LOUISIANA...TO PARTS OF THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
SHOWERS IN MEXICO COVER THE AREA FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 100W...AND MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 105W AND 107W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...IN AN AREA OF ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW IN ORDER TO SUPPORT THAT AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
STRONG SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...IN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION
ALREADY HAS DISSIPATED IN SOME AREAS WITH TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD 17N64W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. THE TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH VENEZUELA 24 HOURS
AGO HAS BECOME COMPARATIVELY MUCH FLATTER WITH TIME AND PRETTY
MUCH NON-EXISTENT NOW. MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES FROM VENEZUELA TO THE EAST
OF 71W NORTHWARD INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN
IT MOVES EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA...TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO
TO HISPANIOLA AND PARTS OF EASTERN CUBA AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 79W AND THE PANAMA BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW HAS PUSHED
AIR ACROSS NICARAGUA...FROM THE COASTAL SECTIONS TO THE AREAS
OF  HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N60W 24N62W
17N64W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 28N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N50W 25N54W
20N58W. MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE AREA FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W...IN BETWEEN THE
TWO AREAS OF CYCLONIC FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL EXTENDS FROM A 18N24W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO
12N30W AND 8N34W. NO PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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