[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD. IT
ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 9N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. LOCATED
WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENT NE
AND SE WINDS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 38W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 53W-61W AND
LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER A
LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 8N.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N13W 7N26W 3N29W 5N41W 5N44W 6N58W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-11N
BETWEEN 10W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA OVER THE
NW GULF INTO NE MEXICO NEAR 22N100W...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N83W. BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING N-NE FROM
THE E PACIFIC REGION INTO THE SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF. THIS IS
PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 25N BETWEEN 89W-94W.
FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY AND LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY MAXIMUMS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
MAINLY N OF 28N...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WEST OF A LINE FROM
HISPANIOLA TO EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 9N79W AND ANCHORED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N83W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC THAT
COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 68W LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS NE PORTIONS...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE
US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES...PROVIDING FOR CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING...POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N E OF 68W.
ELSEWHERE...CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY TRADES ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN PANAMA AND EASTERN COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS COVERS THE W ATLC WEST OF 68W. HOWEVER...A
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 73W FROM 20N-27N.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED MAINLY EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM
20N-27N BETWEEN 65W-70W...IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL
WINDS. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM
31N58W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH
REFLECTS ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE AND
BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 29N50W TO 20N58W. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...ALONG WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N-29N
BETWEEN 47W-60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A 1030 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N40W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE FROM
THE HIGH TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS W-SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 32N54W TO THE NW
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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