[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041658
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W TO THE SOUTH OF
8N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 22W AND 25W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W...AND
FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W. ALL THIS PRECIPITATION MAY OR
MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N IN
FRENCH GUIANA TO 7N BETWEEN 52W AND 54W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 7N12W TO 7N22W 4N40W INTO
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W...FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN
16W AND 18W...FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 25W AND 32W...WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS OF 8N45.5W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W IN
NORTHERN GUYANA AND THE VENEZUELA COASTAL WATERS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ITS PRESENCE...
NOW FROM A 31N93W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL WATERS...
TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
NEAR 25N98W...ACROSS MEXICO...TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL
WATERS OF MEXICO NEAR 17N103W. A SURFACE TRAILED FROM A 1005 MB
EASTERN TEXAS LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N94W...TO
29N93W 27N95W...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 25N98W.
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...THAT WERE
COMPARATIVELY STRONGER AT LEAST SIX HOURS AGO AND THAT NOW HAVE
WEAKENED...REMAIN FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. RESIDUAL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N AND THE
GREATER ANTILLES TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE
RESIDUAL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPILLS INTO THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMAS
AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS AND TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. LARGE-SCALE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROUGH RUNS ROUGHLY FROM 16N63W TO 12N66W TO
8N66W IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF VENEZUELA. AN AREA OF SMALL-SCALE
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN
COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N75W IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND
76W. COMPARATIVELY STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE
APPARENT AT LEAST SIX HOURS AGO OR EARLIER FROM 16N TO 18N
BETWEEN 81W AND 83W HAVE BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS AND PRETTY MUCH HAVE DISSIPATED COMPLETELY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG
76W/77W FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N76W TO THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N76W. MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE BAHAMAS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W. A SECOND MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 65W/66W FROM 20N NORTHWARD.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W FROM 20N TO 25N...A REMNANT OF
YESTERDAY'S TROUGH IN THE SAME AREA. MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 65W AND 67W...FROM 21N
TO 25N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W...AND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND
64W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N36W
TO 30N43W TO A 28N47W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N46W
TO 17N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N43W 24N47W 20N50W
17N58W. MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND
56W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN SAHARA
AND MAURITANIA NEAR 19N18W TO 12N25W TO 5N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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