[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041203 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IA ALONG 22W/23W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL
DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALONG THE WAVE BETWEEN 6N-10N WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
22W-24W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SLIGHT CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALONG THE WAVE BETWEEN 6N-9N WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN
35W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION REMAINS ALONG 52W BETWEEN 7N-10N
WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 3N27W 6N40W 5N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE SW COAST OF
AFRICA E OF 10W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 21W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING NE
LOUISIANA SW TO OVER NW MEXICO COVERING THE GULF N OF 24N W OF
88W. A 1005 MB LOW IS NEAR PORT ARTHUR TEXAS WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF ALONG 29N93W TO 27N97W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF
91W TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE S FROM 22N-27N
BETWEEN 92W-96W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN
ALONG 85W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO ENHANCE AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N E OF 83W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR THUS CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N86W WHILE AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
VENEZUELA JUST E OF THE ABC ISLANDS TO 15N63W. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND THE SE
SURFACE FLOW IS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 19N82W TO
14N79W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 20N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WITHIN WITHIN 120 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 75W-77W. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE
W TROPICAL ATLC AND E OF THE INVERTED UPPER TROUGH GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N
BETWEEN 60W-64W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE E
GULF OF MEXICO IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N TO THE COAST OF CUBA
W OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N71W TO E CUBA NEAR
20N75W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND OVER S FLORIDA. NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 30N60W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 67W-70W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW
IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N48W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N41W THROUGH A WEAK 1018 MB LOW NEAR 26N45W
TO 18N55W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90/120 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 23N-28N. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N44W EXTENDING
FROM 30W-60W AND A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS THE E ATLC TO BEYOND
32N22W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WHICH THE
SURFACE TROUGH BISECTS AND A 1025 MB HIGH NW OF THE TROUGH NEAR
32N49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE












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