[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1000 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N21W TO 3N23W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY. A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS
NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 20W-22W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN DUE TO A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE N.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-10N
BETWEEN 40W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-9N BETWEEN 48W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA ALONG 70W S OF
9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA ALONG 83W S OF
13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
APPROACHES WLY FLOW IN THE E PACIFIC WHICH WILL BEGIN TO PREVENT
IT FROM PROPAGATING WWD. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN
79W-85W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 5N10W 6N20W 5N30W 6N40W 7N50W INTO NE
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 11W-16W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 44W-48W...AND FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 53W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS ALONG A SQUALL LINE HAS PUSHED OFF THE
COAST OF TEXAS AND IS NOW IMPACTING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF
0900 UTC...THE SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM S OF WRN LOUISIANA NEAR
29N93W TO 25N97W. THE STRONGEST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
45 NM BEHIND THE SQUALL AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITHIN 200 NM BEHIND THE AXIS. THIS
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE ERN SIDE OF
A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER TEXAS. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE E ACROSS MISSISSIPPI IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 86W-89W. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE FAR SE GULF OFF THE SW
COAST OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN REMAINS CLEAR AND
DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
EWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA ALONG 83W IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 79W-85W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN ACROSS GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAIN ACROSS ERN CUBA N OF 19N BETWEEN
75W-79W...AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA N OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-71W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY LINKED TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE N ACROSS THE SW ATLC THAT EXTENDS TO NEAR
20N74W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR 16N86W. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE
NRN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N51W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE W ATLC.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE ERN COAST
OF FLORIDA W OF 78W. A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE CARIBBEAN ALONG
25N71W ACROSS THE SW BAHAMAS TO NEAR 20N74W IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
66W-71W...19N-21N BETWEEN 63W-66W...AND FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN
68W-70W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXTENDS ALONG 31N29W 27N35W 26N42W 22N47W. POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS
TROUGHS IS SUPPORTING BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 50W.
FARTHER E...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS NOTED S OF 20N W OF 45W.
ALOFT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGES COVER THE E ATLC CENTERED
NEAR 24N24W...AND 11N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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