[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0500 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N22W TO 2N21W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE
ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 20W-24W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN DUE TO A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE N. NO
DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 42W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA ALONG 71W S OF
11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 69W-71W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA FROM 11N81W TO 4N83W MOVING
W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES WLY
FLOW IN THE E PACIFIC WHICH WILL BEGIN TO PREVENT IT FROM
PROPAGATING WWD. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 79W-85W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 80W-83W.


...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N14W 6N20W 5N30W 6N40W 6N50W INTO NE
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 9W-13W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 47W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS CLEAR AND DRY TONIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LOUISIANA SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN
88W-91W. A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE BASIN
CURRENTLY ACROSS TEXAS SUPPORTING AN INTENSE LINE OF STORMS
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE LINE OF
SHOWERS IS JUST APPROACHING THE FAR W GULF W OF 96W N OF 23N.
THIS IS A FAST MOVING LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS TEXAS AND OVER THE WRN GULF. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE
ALSO IN THE SE GULF FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 81W-83W. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE W ATLC.
EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NW GULF AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EWD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT FROM
12N-14N BETWEEN 79W-85W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER GUATEMALA AND WRN HONDURAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAIN ACROSS ERN
CUBA N OF 19N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY
LINKED TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE N
ACROSS THE SW ATLC. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N86W. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE NRN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N50W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE W ATLC.
HOWEVER...A STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE CARIBBEAN ALONG
20N60W TO 24N74W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 68W-71W...AND WITHIN 150 NM S
OF THE AXIS. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH POKES INTO THE SURFACE
RIDGE ALONG 30N39W 27N47W 27N57W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS ALONG 30N31W
26N37W 24N42W 21N47W MEETING THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N60W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTING BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 50W. FARTHER E...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS
NOTED S OF 20N W OF 45W. ALOFT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
COVER THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N24W...AND 11N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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