[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED N OF THE ITCZ. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS WITHIN THE ITCZ. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE
CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED DUE TO A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO
THE NORTH WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 12N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND MOVING INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN1 75/90 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND W PANAMA BETWEEN 73W-78W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N18W 4N32W 5N42W 6N56W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 1W-41W AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 41W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY SW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN THE W ATLC E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT
0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 22N86W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER S FLORIDA AND W CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM
ALONG THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND THE
MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS
CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AT 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 19N87W INTO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 85W-87W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
NEAR 17N78W AND EXTENDS AN AXIS N INTO THE W ATLC E OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A SECOND ENE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENDS IN THE MONA PASSAGE ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 16N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES E OF 71W ACROSS THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND
WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA INTO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR THIS
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA ALONG
78W E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BEYOND 32N. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WITHIN 60 NM OF 79W. AT 0900
UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS S FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO 27N79W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SE OF A LINE FROM 26N79W TO CUBA NEAR 21N77W. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPING
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 55W UNDER FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF
70W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 35W SUPPORTING A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W ALONG 24N51W INTO
THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW AND 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N26W
INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 18N52W KEEPING SKIES CLEAR THERE AGAIN
THIS MORNING. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AFRICAN
DUST SPREADING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net