[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED N OF THE ITCZ. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS WITHIN THE ITCZ. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED DUE TO A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO
THE NORTH WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE HAS
MOVED INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN BUT STILL REMAINS PARTIALLY
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N18W 4N31W 5N43W 4N52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 11W-15W AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 25W-35W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
12W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY SW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN THE W ATLC JUST E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 27N89W TO
24N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT REMAIN WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF A LINE FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA
TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 16N76W AND
EXTENDING AN AXIS N INTO THE W ATLC JUST E OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND A SECOND ENE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
MONA PASSAGE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN
64W-71W WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR
DIFFLUENT FLOW IS GENERATING SIMILAR ACTIVITY WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-80W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA N OF 9N W OF 73W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE W YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N87W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW
NEAR 19N87W TO 17N86W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 17N-22N
BETWEEN 85W-87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA ALONG
77W JUST E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BEYOND 32N78W. THE
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE
COAST N OF 26N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1022 MB HIGH WSW OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N69W WITH MODERATELY DRY
AIR ALOFT KEEPING MOST OF THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 55W UNDER
FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF
70W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 35W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W TO 22N52W WHERE IT
AGAIN BECOMES STATIONARY TO JUST NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
19N63W. AN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N58W TO THE MONA
PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E
ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES THROUGH
32N26W INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 15N50W KEEPING SKIES CLEAR THERE
AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
AFRICAN DUST SPREADING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE





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