[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 17N30W TO 10N28W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 20N54W TO 11N59W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY STABLE AIR MASKING THE LOW
LEVEL CURVATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 150 NM SW OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 10N-14N.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N14W 13N30W THEN RESUMES NEAR
12N37W 8N45W 9N51W 9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 11N-14N.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO
11N21W...FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 25W-30W...AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 46-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW CENTERED REMAINS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE BORDER OF TEXAS AND MEXICO
NEAR BROWNSVILLE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 23N92W TO INLAND OVER
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE
NE GULF NEAR 28N88W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE W OF THE UPPER LOW TO SE LOUISIANA
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS IN THE SW
GULF NEAR 21N95W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 23N95W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N93W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N BETWEEN
93W-97W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E GULF WITH A 1021 MB
HIGH NEAR 28N86W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BUT IS CURRENTLY NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
19N87W AND EXTENDS N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA
AND COUPLED WITH THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE ABOVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W TO NICARAGUA
NEAR 14N84W INCLUDING ALL OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. AN UPPER LOW
IS MOVING W ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 16N75W
BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SAHARAN AIR
THUS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE E COAST OF
JAMAICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING
OVER BERMUDA ALONG 32N70W THEN NW TO BEYOND 33N77W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC BASIN. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY
A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 33N33W ALONG 26N50W TO A 1021 MB HIGH NE OF
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 28N76W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY SAHARAN AIR ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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