[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ELONGATED AND NE-SW TILTED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N28W 13N32W
7N34W MOVING W 5 TO 10 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDS THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN BOTH SATELLITE
DATA AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A
SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS FOUND WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
SIGNIFICANT SAHARAN AIR LAYER SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 175 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG
58W S OF 18N MOVING WEST 5 TO 10 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS ATTACHED
TO THE ITCZ WITH VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A SURGE
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS OVERHEAD
THIS WAVE. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
55W AND 61W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST OF THE
GAMBIA NEAR 13N16W...WESTWARD ALONG 14N20W 17N27W 8N35W 7N50W
10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
190 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 35W TO 60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUINEA AND
GUINEA-BISSAU TO 200 NM OFFSHORE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF THE GULF...EAST OF 92W...ENHANCED BY BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT AROUND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
28N88W. STRONGER CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...SOUTH OF 22N...PRODUCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 94W
SOUTH OF 22N. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NW GULF
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS
TO 30 NM OFFSHORE. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN TEXAS LINGERS OVER THIS REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN...WEST OF 75W SOUTH OF 13N...DUE TO THE PACIFIC ITCZ
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COUNTRIES OF COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA TO 100 NM
OFFSHORE...FROM MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS THAT MOVED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN 24 HOURS AGO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ALONG
WITH SAHARAN DUST IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING OVER THE ATLANTIC DUE TO
DRY SAHARAN AIR ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ANCHORED BY A
1020 MB HIGH CIRCULATING OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 27N74W AND A
BROAD 1025 MB HIGH WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N31W PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NORTH OF 28N WEST OF 65W ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION MAY ENTER THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE THE DRY
TREND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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