[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150512
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N28W TO 5N29W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ALSO EVIDENT IN SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS.THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
4N-14N BETWEEN 28W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW
IS ALSO ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS.
A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE
AXIS RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO NEAR THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. WAVE
FOLLOWS A SLIGHT MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 60W-64W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NRN
VENEZUELA W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 62W-69W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N17W 10N30W 8N37W 10N45W 10N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST NEAR THE W AFRICAN
COAST FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 13W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO W OF 85W AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SRN PLAINS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PROGRESSING WWD FROM
THE ATLC IS NOW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO WRN CUBA ARE ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF
85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE SRN BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N AROUND A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC AND UP THE ERN COAST OF MEXICO.
EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ERN GULF AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE WWD.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE SE BAHAMAS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN
75W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ACROSS WRN CUBA IS ALSO ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF CUBA N OF 20N BETWEEN 80W-85W. THE
COMBINATION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN
EXTENSION OF THE E PACIFIC ITCZ ACROSS PANAMA TO THE COLOMBIAN
COAST IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-84W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER NRN COLOMBIA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 72W-77W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-18N
BETWEEN 64W-68W...AND FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 60W-64W ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING A
TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 62W.
ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO EITHER SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE BAHAMAS...EXTENDING
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W PROGRESSES WWD...AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE NE COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR THE BASE OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO ACROSS
THE SE BAHAMAS AND N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SE BAHAMAS. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
BASIN ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1026 MB AND 1028 MB HIGHS NEAR
36N52W AND 38N33W RESPECTIVELY. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER
ACCOMPANIED BY DUST COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAIR. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 31N50W WITH
UPPER RIDGING TO THE S OF 20N CENTERED NEAR 15N59W WITH AXIS
EXTENDING TO THE NE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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