[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W FROM 5N TO 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. A SURGE OF MOISTURE NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS IS ALSO PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N
BETWEEN 23W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W FROM 4N TO 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND
DUST ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE AXIS RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO NEAR
THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN
40W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W S OF 15N
INTO INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN VENEZUELA MOVING W AT ABOUT
10-15 KT. THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN MODERATE VALUES OF MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W WESTWARD ALONG 10N20W 7N30W 10N40W
8N50W 10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL
WAVE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150 NM OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA...SIERRA LEONE...GUINEA...AND
GUINEA-BISSAU. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN
100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIR ALOFT W OF 85W...WHICH IS KEEPING CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION
MOSTLY FAIR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT AND
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
REACHING DOWN SW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SURFACE OBS ACROSS
FLORIDA SHOW STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE...SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE. IN ADDITION...COMPUTER MODEL DATA INDICATES
STRONG DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT IN THIS REGION AS WELL. THE
SCENARIO LEADS TO A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS FLORIDA...
WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 30N81W 26N81W
22N82W 21N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING W
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN
N OF 17N...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA...
HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. THE SAME WEATHER ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 15N. PART
OF THE ITCZ CROSSES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 11N INCLUDING
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE 1008 MB LOW IS
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE FAR W ATLANTIC W OF 70W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...RELATED TO A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SEE GULF OF
MEXICO DISCUSSION ABOVE. FURTHERMORE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N75W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S BAHAMAS AND WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE N
COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND FAR NE CUBA. STRONGER CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN...SEE CARIBBEAN SEA DISCUSSION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC E OF 70W N OF 20N...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE 1028 MB
HIGHS NEAR 34N58W AND 38N38W.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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