[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W TO THE SOUTH OF
12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING TO A DEGREE.
PRECIPITATION STILL IS POSSIBLE IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM
6N TO 8N BETWEEN 63W AND 72W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 5N25W TO 8N39W...INTO
NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA...BEYOND 6N60W IN GUYANA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM BRAZIL TO SURINAME FROM 1N TO
5N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SIERRA LEONE COASTAL WATERS FROM
6N TO 10N BETWEEN LAND AND 18W...FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 24W AND
33W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W. OTHER DISORGANIZED
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANT OF ALEX IS A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
INLAND IN CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 24N104W. SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS MEXICO FROM 20N TO 29N. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE SAME AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW...ESPECIALLY FROM 25N TO 29N
BETWEEN 99W AND 102W ALONG THE MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER. SHOWERS
ARE IN TEXAS ALSO...TO THE SOUTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 102W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM THE REMNANT OF ALEX
REACHES AS FAR TO THE NORTH AS SOUTHERN KANSAS. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BASE OF A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 28N85W IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
IS ALONG 32N/33N BETWEEN 80W AND LOUISIANA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 77W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND 87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM CUBA BETWEEN
80W AND 81W TO EASTERN HONDURAS...AND EVENTUALLY TO SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM
HONDURAS TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
WATERS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST...AND THE
TROUGH THAT REACHES 15N67W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 24N60W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 15N67W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN AS THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A. CONTINUES TO DIP SOUTHWARD.
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH REACHES 28N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS MOVED FROM THE BAHAMAS
TOWARD CUBA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS NOW IS PART OF A LARGER-
SCALE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CUBA INTO CENTRAL AMERICA.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N12W
TO 26N20W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS FROM 26N20W TO 26N33W. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 26N33W TO 29N47W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N60W...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N67W. WHAT USED TO BE THE
NORTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT NOW IS ALONG 67W/68W...
IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W...
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.
THE 24N59W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 68W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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