[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX IS IN MEXICO NEAR 23.3N
102.4W AT 02/0300 UTC. ALEX IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THIS
POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 35 MILES/55 KM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF ZACATECAS IN MEXICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT3 KNHC...AND THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SOME 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN MEXICO FOR THE TIME
PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 02 JULY /EIGHT O'CLOCK IN THE MORNING WERE
AT LEAST 11 INCHES IN THE STATE OF TAMAULIPAS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY...AND AT LEAST 12 INCHES IN THE
STATE OF NUEVO LEON THAT IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF
TAMAULIPAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO FROM 18N TO 28N.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/40W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS
IN THE ITCZ.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/67W TO THE SOUTH OF
12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN VENEZUELA FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 5N25W TO 8N39W...INTO
NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA...BEYOND 6N60W IN GUYANA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM BRAZIL TO SURINAME FROM 1N TO
5N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W.  STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE SIERRA LEONE COASTAL WATERS FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 13W AND
15W...AND FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. OTHER DISORGANIZED
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA/THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX IS COMPLETELY INLAND IN MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE BASE OF
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY MOVES INTO THE
AREA OF THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ALONG 32N/33N BETWEEN 80W AND LOUISIANA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 79W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 84W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
WAS NEAR 25N79W ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO NOW APPEARS TO BE ON THE
CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF CUBA NEAR 21N79W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 74W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
79W AND 81W TO THE NORTH OF 20N. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM CUBA TO 25N BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND 81W IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO
20N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 84W. REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE WEST OF
JAMAICA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN
80W AND 82W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 24N59W
CYCLONIC CENTER INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N67W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND
70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
WAS NEAR 25N79W ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO NOW APPEARS TO BE ON THE
CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF CUBA NEAR 21N79W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 74W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
79W AND 81W TO THE NORTH OF 20N. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM CUBA TO 25N BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND 81W IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
HAS STAYED AWAY FROM THE AREA BECAUSE OF ALEX NOW HAS A FREE
PASS IN ORDER TO MOVE SOUTHWARD MORE AND MORE WITH TIME. THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AT LEAST REACHES THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG 32N/33N BETWEEN 80W AND
LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N14W TO 25N20W...ALONG A SHEAR
AXIS FROM 25N20W TO 27N33W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N33W TO
28N47W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 24N59W...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 16N67W. WHAT USED TO BE THE NORTHERN END OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT NOW IS ALONG 65W/67W...IS A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT RUNS FROM 23N72W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 17N74W.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. THE
24N59W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR THIS
TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 68W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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