[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271129
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM S LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W ALONG 4N20W
4N30W 1N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 3S47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 3W-11W...AND
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 10W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 3S-EQ BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
MORNING ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER NRN ALABAMA. THE RIDGE
IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS OVER MUCH OF
THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE WRN GULF WHERE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS LINE
THE MEXICO AND TEXAS COASTLINE ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS AROUND THE
RIDGE REACHING 20 KT ACROSS THE WRN GULF. ALOFT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE AS SLY RETURN
FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N78W TO 21N82W BECOMING STATIONARY TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR
15N86W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND W ATLC
WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF MARTINIQUE NEAR 14N61W CONTINUING
NW TO S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE
FROM 12N-15N E OF 67W...AND FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 67W-79W. THIS
AREA HAS HAD CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. IN FACT...GUADELOUPE HAS REPORTED ALMOST .75 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALOFT...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
EXPECT THE FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N63W CONTINUING SW ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN CONUS AND W ATLC ALONG 70W
SUPPORTS THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER
TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E ALONG 54W IS FURTHER
SUPPORTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 30N55W AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 54W. THE
SYSTEM TO THE E CONSISTS OF PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. A 1005
MB CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 31N38W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
SW TO NEAR 28N40W. A 1002 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N32W WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO NEAR 27N32W...THEN SW TO NEAR 22N40W.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ENTERS THE AREA E OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
32N30W 23N33W 17N40W 15N50W CONTINUING AS A SHEAR LINE INTO THE
E CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N
E OF 45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
24N BETWEEN 23W-30W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ELSEWHERE. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON










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