[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE AFRICA NEAR 8N12W
ALONG 5N22W 2N35W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1S49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 10W-14W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
19W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER E OKLAHOMA. THE RIDGE IS
PROVIDING EXTREMELY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS OVER MUCH OF
THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE WRN GULF WHERE SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
REMAIN. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS AROUND THE
RIDGE. ALOFT...MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
NE AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N78W TO 19N83W BECOMING STATIONARY TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR
15N86W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO COVERING NRN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND W ATLC
WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH THE
MARTINIQUE PASSAGE NEAR 14N61W CONTINUING NW TO S OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 17N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM
13N-16N E OF 66W...AND FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 66W-77W. THIS AREA
HAS HAD CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. IN
FACT...GUADELOUPE HAS REPORTED ALMOST .75 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS
ARE ACROSS MUCH OF BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N64W CONTINUING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N
OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 25N.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN CONUS AND W ATLC
ALONG 75W SUPPORTS THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE
UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E ALONG 55W IS
FURTHER SUPPORTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
NEAR 33N54W AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 55W. THE
SYSTEM TO THE E CONSISTS OF A 1005 MB OCCLUDED LOW NEAR 33N39W
WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N33W CONTINUING ALONG
27N34W 22N40W. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ENTERS THE AREA E OF THE
COLD FRONT ALONG 32N29W 25N32W 19N41W 15N50W CONTINUING AS A
SHEAR LINE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE SW OF THE
LOW CENTER N OF 28N E OF 45W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
N OF 25N BETWEEN 27W-32W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N BETWEEN
32W-38W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ELSEWHERE. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 35W. THIS UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON









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