[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM S LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W ALONG 4N20W
1N35W EQ45W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 9W-14W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
IS ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-25W. ISOLATED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE AXIS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
27W-52W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER BRAZIL S OF
THE AXIS FROM 1S-6S BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR TALLAHASSEE AT 31N84W TO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG
26N87W 23N89W 21N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...AND 120 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES A LINE OF STRONGER STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO GEORGIA AND UP THE SE COAST
STATES. PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AS WELL AS GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA ARE UNDER TORNADO WATCH AT THIS TIME. 20 TO 25 KT
SURFACE WINDS ARE BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT COMING FROM
THE S TO SW AHEAD...SHIFTING W TO NW BEHIND. A DEEP LAYER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE W GULF
ALONG 94W SUPPORTS THE FRONT...PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT
TO FURTHER SUPPORT THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH SE ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC WITH CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 75W.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...TO N OF
HISPANIOLA ALONG 18N63W 19N67W 20N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT AXIS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN...WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT PUSHES SE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027
MB HIGH NEAR 37N64W. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF THE BASIN ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM A
992 MB LOW ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N42W CONTINUING
ALONG 24N46W 18N55W TO THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W
BECOMING A DYING COLD FRONT N OF HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 22N74W.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 23N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 150 NM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT E OF 50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE NOW
DIMINISHED IN THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG THE FRONT. A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 46W SUPPORTS THE FRONT...AND
MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE
ITCZ. FARTHER E...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ANCHORED BY A
1033 MB HIGH OFF THE N COAST OF SPAIN. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS
SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 27W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE E ACROSS W AFRICA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ALONG ERN PORTIONS OF THE ITCZ.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON



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