[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242322
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N30W 2N45W EQ50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 27W-30W...
AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 40W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N87W 20N93W 17N95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. 20-25 NW SURFACE WINDS
ARE W OF THE FRONT WHILE AN EQUALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE E GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING 20-25 SE WINDS E OF THE FRONT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 77W PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO WEST CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24
HOUR WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO ALONG 17N60W 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM N OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA
NEAR 9N74W. CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY
FRESH TRADEWINDS OF 17-21 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 77W IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN 24 HOURS DUE TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. MOREOVER...EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO
THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ALONG 32N42W 25N45W 17N55W 17N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E AND N OF THE FRONT. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITHIN 300 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. FURTHER E...A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N19W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM
THE HIGH CENTER TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N40W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 20W-45W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC FROM EQ-20N. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM 32N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 32N32W
AND EXTEND SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA




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