[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181720
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1615 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SE LIBERIA NEAR 4N6W ALONG 5N17W
2N28W EQ39W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 15W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 22W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE
MISSISSIPPI COASTLINE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. LIGHT
ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE REACHING 15 KT
ACROSS THE WRN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW ALOFT
COVERS THE AREA DRAWING A SWATH OF MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO N/CENTRAL FLORIDA SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS IN
THIS AREA. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO SHIFT E ALLOWING SLY
RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT THAT DRAPES ACROSS THE W ATLC TO ERN CUBA BECOMES
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM NEAR 22N81W ALONG 19N85W
TO THE N CENTRAL HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM N OF GRENADA NEAR 13N61W TO THE NW
ALONG 15N66W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 20N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING THE BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. SMALL WEAKNESSES IN THE
UPPER RIDGE ARE SUPPORTING THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT BOTH THE FRONT
AND TROUGH TO DISSIPATE BY LATER TONIGHT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM A 987 MB LOW OFF THE
NE UNITES STATES COAST ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N69W
CONTINUING SW ALONG 27N74W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO E CUBA
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED E OF THE
FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 64W-68W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 41N67W WITH AXIS EXTENDING SE
TO NEAR 34N61W. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH 1500 NM W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 28N45W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.
FARTHER E...A DYING COLD FRONT EXTENDS  SLIGHTLY W OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 32N18W ALONG 24N25W TO W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
NEAR 18N36W WHERE IT LOOSES ITS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BECOMING A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 15N50W TO THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR
13N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 20W-27W...AND
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH ELSEWHERE. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
AZORES ISLANDS TO NEAR 17N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON






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