[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 47W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 1S51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W...INTO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 80W...
AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS OVER ELEUTHERA ISLAND
AND CENTRAL ANDROS ISLAND...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA
NEAR 23N80W...TO 21N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N82W TO 17N86W INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL HONDURAS. THIS IS THE FRONT THAT JUST CROSSED THE GULF
OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS. THE WHOLE AREA THAT IS
AROUND THE FRONT IS COVERED BY UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE. ALL THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT SUPPORTS
THE FRONT IS TO THE NORTH OF 32N...IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 14N100W...ACROSS MEXICO BETWEEN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 100W...INTO THE CENTRAL WATERS NEAR
25N90W... AND BEYOND CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 30N80W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N91W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS AT THE END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT.
THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 13N60W TO 16N66W TO 23N70W. BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 210 NM TO THE NORTH...
NORTHEAST...AND EAST OF 12N60W 14N67W 18N68W 23N70W. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUDINESS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO IN
CLOUDINESS THAT IS TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA FROM 17N TO 19N
BETWEEN 79W AND 82W...AND FROM 20N TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 84W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 18N36W SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 19N40W. A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 19N40W TO 14N50W TO 13N60W. SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N34W 27N29W BEYOND
32N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT





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