[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130029 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2330 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR THE NORTHERN
COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W
2N30W EQ40W TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR 1S45W. WEAK CONVECTION IS
FOUND ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHWEST
BASIN...BRINGING A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS TO THE REGION. SHIP AND
OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS SHOW 5 TO 15 KT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER
RADAR DATA SHOW A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN MEXICO
COAST FROM 24N TO 26N. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING ALMOST THE ENTIRE GULF. THIS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEEN TRANSFERRED FROM THE EAST TROPICAL PACIFIC INTO
THE BASIN. THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE MONA PASSAGE...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES
WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG 17N70W 15N75W 11N80W TO THE SOUTHWEST BASIN
INTO NORTHERN PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. TO THE WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SHIP AND
BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT OVER
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BASIN. ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THIS
REGION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
39N36W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW CENTER
AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N44W...AND CONTINUES ALONG
26N50W 20N60W ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE. THIS FRONT IS MOVING ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS SUPPORTING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT WITH THIS FRONT OVER OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION. HOWEVER...INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTION 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 32N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION WITHIN AND AHEAD OF IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA



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